Surface and ground water that cross international boundaries are being drawn upon to meet the increasing demands of the environment, domestic and economic needs of neighboring countries. At the same time, while total amount of fresh water remains historically unchanged, there are growing pressures due to increasing population and climate change. These problems are particularly acute in countries that lack economic and political resilience. As a result, there has been concern in recent decades that water scarcity may act as a catalyst for geopolitical or “hydropolitical” conflict. There is however a growing body of research that suggests that water may actually be a facilitator of peace given the proper institutional structure. Institutional capacity is fundamental to limiting “vulnerability” over shared water resources by providing resiliency to changes that would otherwise led to conflict. Unfortunately there are multiple factors that can prevent or retard the development of institutional capacity. These factors can lead to unstable situations across political boundaries, which threaten human and environmental security. In order to preempt costly transboundary water conflicts there is a need to monitor and identify what contributes to “hydropolitical vulnerability” and then develop a framework to facilitate cooperation over shared water resources.

“Hydropolitical vulnerability” refers to the risk of geopolitical disputes over shared water resources; it is defined as: “The likely hood of conflict rising as the rate of change within a shared water basin exceeds the institutional capacity to absorb that change.” This identifies both agents in the dispute – the rate of change in a system, and the capacity to adapt to the change.

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